Strong Western Disturbance to Trigger Heavy Snowfall and Cold Wave

SRINAGAR | January 22, 2026 — A powerful Western Disturbance is poised to sweep across Jammu and Kashmir, bringing significant snowfall and a sharp drop in temperatures. Forecasters have increased their confidence levels to 95%, warning that current weather models may even be underestimating the system’s true intensity.

The weather system is expected to begin its impact in the higher reaches of North Kashmir this afternoon, gradually covering most parts of the Union Territory by tonight.The meteorological outlook indicates a very high probability of widespread snowfall across the Kashmir plains.

Regions including Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, and Kathua are also braced for significant accumulations. While the system is predicted to weaken within 24 hours, the snowfall rate is expected to be exceptionally intense due to high moisture levels.

The peak impact is slated for tonight through late tomorrow afternoon, though intermittent rain and snow may linger until the morning of January 24.Accumulation totals will vary based on snow density. Under “dry snow” conditions, the plains could see between 4 inches and 2 feet of snow, with the Pir Panjal belt—specifically Shopian—likely to see the highest totals. If the snow is “wet,” accumulations may range from 3 inches to 1.5 feet.

Meanwhile, the higher reaches are preparing for a massive 2 to 4 feet of fresh powder. In the Jammu plains, the system is expected to manifest as moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied by strong, gusty winds.Following this heavy precipitation, the region’s atmosphere is expected to undergo a “reset.”

A severe cold wave is forecast to take hold from tonight, ushering in prolonged, harsh winter conditions that are likely to persist through the end of the month. Travelers are advised to plan for significant disruptions on January 23, as flights, train services, and road connectivity across the region are expected to be affected by the inclement weather.